Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability

Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability

This paper proposes a simple chartist-fundamentalist model in which we allow for nonlinear time variation in chartists’ extrapolation rate. Estimation of the model using monthly data for the major currencies vis-a-vis the US dollar shows that the model is significant in-sample and that it has out-of-sample predictive power for some of the currencies. We investigate the power of tests of the ran...

The Predictability Power of Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm from Fiems’ Financial crisis

Organizations expose to financial risk that can lead to bankruptcy and loss of business is increased nowadays. This may leads to discontinuity in operations, increased legal fees, administrative costs and other indirect costs. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to predict the financial crisis of Tehran Stock Exchange using neural network and genetic algorithm. This research is descripti...

Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability

We study whether the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate can help us account for the lack of predictability of the nominal exchange rate. We construct a smooth nonlinear error-correction model that allows us to test the hypotheses of nonlinear predictability of the nominal exchange rate and nonlinear behavior on the real exchange rate in the context of a fully specified cointegrated sy...

Exchange Rate Volatility and UK Imports from Developing Countries: The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis

This paper studies the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK’s real imports from three major developing countries Brazil, China, and South Africa. The paper contributes to the literature by investigating the third country effect and also by analyzing the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. This paper furthe...

Real and Financial Shocks, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Probability of a Currency Crisis